Climate Change and its Impacts in Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

Global Climate Change resulting from an increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere has become an accepted and major theme in today‘s world. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC), the average temperature of the earth increased by 0.8 ° C over the last century and it is expected to further increase by 1.4 to 5.8 º C by the end of the current century. These changes in temperature are but the crest of the many environmental, social and political issues which will follow in the wake of the changing climate (LEAD, 2008). Unfortunately the major causes of a rapidly warming climate can be attributed to anthropogenic activities such as the burning of fuel, the depletion of forests and changes in land use (conversion of forest into agriculture land).

Having said this, it is important to note that some levels of Green House Gases are necessary to maintain temperatures needed to sustain human and animal life. The average mean temperature of the earth is 15°C, without greenhouse gases it would sit at -18 º C, a temperature which is unsuitable for overall life. Recent history points to a rapid increase in both Greenhouse gas emissions and a parallel warming of the earth on a global scale. As such, this is a global problem, which can only be tackled through dedicated global support. It seems Climate Change cannot be defeated through the introduction of a ‘one size fits all’ approach: each nation must understand its local context and responsibilities and create a sustainable strategy for climate change mitigation/adaptation. The Pakistan‘s government Task Force on Climate Change thinks that adaptation should be the main impetus behind the country‘s future line of action. Keeping this in mind, this article‘s purpose is to test the adaptation hypothesis of Pakistan‘s government. It will further identify the effects of climate change on Pakistan‘s water, food and energy sectors, and suggest policy recommendations that are contextual and aligned with the development preferences of the country.

Pakistan, a country whose range includes high mountains, arid plains and low lying coastal areas, is extremely vulnerable to a whole diversity of Climate Change impacts. Pakistan‘s total Greenhouse gases emissions in 2008 amounted to 309 million tonnes (mt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent. Pakistan‘s biggest contributor is the energy sector with a 50% share followed by the agriculture sector (39%), industrial processes (6%) and other activities (5%). Pakistan‘s green house gas emissions have nearly doubled in the past 16 years, but due to the fact that emissions are still only about 0.8% of the global scale, a miniscule amount, they are not yet considered alarming. In fact, on a global scale Pakistan ranks 135th in per capita green house gas emissions amongst the comity of nations (Planning Commission, 2010).

This information leads to the scientific reality governing all green house gases emissions: they are mainly created by the developed world yet their consequences are felt globally. Much like other developing countries, Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, putting its water, food and energy security, as well as the livelihoods of millions of people, at stake. The fallowing  figure explains the assertion made above:

SITUATION AT HAND - WATER, FOOD AND ENERGY SECURITY

In Pakistan, as on a global scale, water, food and energy create a nexus of interdependence whose balance is thrown off by a globally changing climate. The nation‘s already hot climate and changing patterns of snowmelt and precipitation exacerbate existing social and economic pressures on natural resources. This in turn increases the pressure on valuable ecosystem services provided by the rivers, its delta and the sea, whom which poor communities are entirely dependent for livelihoods and survival. Lack of environmental flows to the deltaic area is likely to expose around 2.26 million people to water scarcity, rising sea levels and food insecurity. However upstream, the areas around the river are under the threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which collectively are the major climate-related threats Pakistan faces presently. Pakistan‘s further depreciation from a water-stressed to a water-scarce nation, due to anthropogenic activity and a changing climate, influences the country‘s capacity for food and energy creation.

The facts that the Government of Pakistan has made no action plan to tackle these crises, a low public awareness and limited technical abilities create a more difficult path towards alleviating the Climate Change crisis.

The country is extremely short of freshwater resources. With a continuously increasing population and Climate change, the water availability that was about 5,650 metres/per person/year in 1951, has decreased to as low as 1,100 cubic metres/per person/year in 2010 (World Bank, 2006). This has placed the country in the comity of nations which are identified as being ‗water scarce‘. Projections say that under the existing circumstances it will further be lowered to 800 cubic metres / per person / year by 2026 (World Bank, 2006); these levels would create not only food and energy scarcity but also political tensions. The water situation is worsened by unrestricted ground water abstraction for agricultural and industrial use, further accelerating the crisis. These human elements are then joined by Climate change repercussions in the form of increased variability of monsoon and winter rains. A loss of natural reservoirs and instability of river flows further exacerbate already critical water issues. According to the World Bank (2006) report: Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry, the western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, initially increasing flows in the Indus but in the long term scenario, once the reservoirs are empty, the flows will decrease around 30-40% in the Indus River system.

As climate change will have an effect on water availability, in turn it will have an adverse influence on poverty. Water resources are a basis for the health and welfare of the poor, especially vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and women. Both the quality and the quantity of water matter greatly in this, and safe and adequate quantities of water are recognized as a precondition for an acceptable standard of development, to meet the UN Millennium Declaration targets for 2015—to halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger, cannot access or afford safe drinking water, and are without adequate sanitation. Moreover, water resources are critical to the viability of the ecosystems through which the poor access the natural resources on which many aspects of their livelihoods are based. Even where water is not a direct input into production, other natural resources (such as forestry, fishing, or grazing) contingent on the viability of ecosystem processes depend on the flows of water through these systems. 

CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONS

As we can see, the effort that needs to be made to counter, adapt and mitigate the negative effects of Climate change, must come as a collaborative effort from all levels of society and all departments of the government as the proposed solutions cannot be tightly packed in a compartment labeled mitigation or adaptation. However seeing the ground realities of climate change, it is pertinent to take adaptation more seriously as identified by government of Pakistan, owing to the debate of the water, food and energy security of the nation. However being a responsible member of international community, Pakistan should also contribute to the global mitigation efforts as discussed above.

Climate Change in the context of Pakistan is posing three big challenges relating to the water, food and energy security of the country. However, a careful analysis shows that all these securities are interlinked and are dependent on each other. A concerted approach by all relevant departments would be beneficial instead of adopting a silo approach. Currently, the stewardship of climate change rests with the Ministry of Environment; however the Planning Commission, and the Ministries of Water, Agriculture, and Industries, the National Disaster Management Authority, and others, along with civil society organisations should also play an active role in finalizing and implementing the climate change agenda. Finally, some general suggestions that need to be incorporated across the board are 

• A CC policy needs to be devised by taking into consideration the water, food and energy security of the country. It should be done in a consultative manner in which all the relevant stakeholders are taken on board;
• Provincial opinions should also be taken while finalizing the CC policy. Provinces should make adaptation action plans in light of the national policy developed, which should be consistent with the existing ground realities;
• Technology no doubt is necessary but is not sufficient alone. The technocentric approach should be complemented by considering the social concerns as well. Doing so would help in building the ownership of the campaign to counter the effects of climate change;
• The institutional capacity of different tiers of government should be built on adaptation measures side by side with the communities;
• The capacity building of vulnerable communities should also be done and adaptation measures should be adopted that are consistent with the socio-economic realities of the beneficiaries.